Hello again after a week's absence. I've been quite busy recently and have not had the chance to dedicate the time to this blog that it deserves. But hopefully I will be able to catch up with you all this week.
We had quite a week in the United States and Latin America. In the United States, the economic and financial crisis got worse, as the Big 3 automakers went to Capitol Hill to ask for a bailout for the auto industry and the stock market crashed to its lowest level in 6 years. Today it appears that Citigroup, once the world's largest financial institution and largest financial employer, will receive a $20 billion bailout from the government. The company's stock has dropped 87% in the last year and today, it is in serious danger of failing. The pressure is clearly mounting on President-Elect Obama to take action on the economy, despite the fact he is not President yet. As Bush showed no leadership on the economy last week and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's strategy of bailouts is increasingly under fire, it is no wonder that the country is looking to Obama for direction.
A Tale of Two Conferences
Since I wrote on the G-20 Conference, there have been two others that showcase Latin America's pivotal importance to the global economy and to the issues of the future like energy independence and climate change. First, California Governor Arnold Schwarrzneggar hosted the very impressive Governor's Global Climate Summit last Tuesday and Wednesday. President-Elect Obama addressed the conference by video and announced that the U.S. will embrace and lead the international fight against climate change. Obama promised that all those who seek to reduce carbon emissions and create alternative energy sources in this country and the world will have the White House and the United States as a strong ally. It was inspiring to hear these words from our President-Elect. Watching the dedication of other national leaders like Governor Schwarzneggar to this cause and the participation of the international community was also very encouraging. This represents a radical change from the antiquated, backwards policies on the issue of our current administration. To those who may be criticizing our President-Elect for some of his cabinet choices this week, I believe this is clear evidence that Obama is already working to fulfill his promise of change to our country.
The reason I mentioned this Conference on the Blog though is it included speeches and panel participation by representatives of the governments of Brazil, Mexico and Chile. These important Latin American nations played a pivotal role among the 19 countries that participated in the Conference, and showed that they seek a leadership role in this international campaign.
The other Conference that drew everyone's attention last week was this weekend's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in Lima, Peru. The APEC is quickly becoming a forum that showcases increasing economic cooperation among emerging economies, on the one hand, and increasing competition between the United States on one side and China and Russia on the other. In this environment, Latin America's diversifying Pacific Rim economies, Peru, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, are increasingly playing a major role. The story for the last couple of years at this Forum has been closer relations between China and these countries. Once a basket case of economic development, Peru's economy has grown remarkably in recent years and is withstanding the global credit crunch better than its neighbors. It and other Pacific Rim South American nations are creating strong economic ties to China, Russia and other Asian nations. In this APEC conference, the members showed an increased willingness to create free trade links between them and also serve as a forum for the solution to the world's economic troubles. The Lima Declaration, presented by APEC members at the Conference's end, mirrored the Washington Declaration of the G-20 Conference and committed the APEC as a forum for resolving the crisis.
I think what the incoming Obama Administration can learn from Latin American protagonism in these global conferences is that creating a new relationship with these countries can have an impact not only on how the U.S. is viewed in the region but also its image around the world. It can also see how much our relationship has already changed with these countries over the last eight years. In both the APEC and Climate Summits, the efforts of Latin American governments to act on the international stage in support of their positions on crucial issues is clear. These governments are not looking for the world's traditional powers to lead the way anymore. They have used the past eight years and its wrongheaded policies to move away from the United States and towards China, Russia and Asia economically. This should not worry us so much as it should challenge us to rise to the moment. Our country has many reasons to have deep and lasting economic and political ties to these countries, not least of which is our significant Latino population. The way to strengthen these ties, I believe, is not just to focus on trade policy and political disagreements, but rather to emphasize our ability to engage and cooperate with Latin America on a whole host of issues. We should also place Latinos in positions of power in government where they can lead our policy towards the region.
Elections on the Left of Latin America
Meanwhile, in Latin America, two left-leaning countries (Venezuela and Nicaragua) held state and municipal elections which indirectly measured the popularity of their leaders while the country's major economies participated in two global conferences, one on climate change and the other on economic cooperation. Research studies confirmed the rising economic and political power of Brazil on the world stage and illustrated that the full force of the global financial and economic crisis is beginning to envelop the region, particularly Brazil, Mexico and Central America. All of this foreshadows shifts in the political dynamic in the region in the short and long term.
Yesterday's gubernatorial and mayoral elections in Venezuela represented increased power for the political opposition, though continued dominance of the country's left-wing president, Hugo Chavez. The preliminary results released by Venezuela's National Electoral Council indicate that President Chavez's party won 17 of 22 governorships, yet suffered significant defeats to his political opposition in the country's major population centers. The opposition to Chavez won governorships in five of Venezuela's most populous states (Zulia, Miranda, Carabobo, Tachira, Nueva Esparta) and the country's capital, Caracas. Opposition figures also won all of the mayoral races in Caracas. As according to the election authorities, Chavez's party won the popular vote (52.4% to 41.4%), the elections demonstrated that Chavez, despite his authoritarian tactics, erosion of human rights, and ties to Colombian guerrillas, remains his country's most popular and powerful figure. However, the country is clearly divided between urban and rural voters, and cracks are appearing in Chavez's cocoon of absolute legislative, executive and judicial power. The victories of leading opposition figures in these gubernatorial and mayoral races represents the consolidation of a trend towards more plurality that began in Chavez's loss in a 2006 referendum that would have granted him the presidency for life and other trappings of absolute power. Today, voters in Venezuela are increasingly concerned with high inflation, an impending economic downturn, and the continuing spiral of violent crime. The increased visability of opposition leaders, combined with dramatically low oil prices and a severe economic crisis projected to hit Venezuela as a result in 2009, will likely augment the level of political and social conflict in the country. However, as I said, Chavez remains the single most powerful figure in Venezuela and has thus far retained popularity among rural and poor voters, which means that his influence will continue to be felt across Latin America.
Meanwhile, the aftermath of Nicaragua's mayoral elections, held on November 9th, has been fraught with violence after accusations of fraud in the mayor's race in Managua (the capital) and other cities led to protests and confrontations between pro-government and opposition protestors. The Sandinista government of Daniel Ortega has been accused of helping to rig the vote in the elections in favor of Sandinista candidates, and its response to the protests has been to counter them with fervent and violent counterprotests. President Ortega has been strongly criticized internationally for limiting access of outside election observers and ordering underlings to tamper with ballots. Former members of his own movement now decry the authoritarian and personalistic character that his government has adopted in recent months.
Despite Nicaragua's small size and relative economic weakness, it is a symbolic country politically because of its history of revolution and tense relationship with the United States. Its struggle today is also symbolic of the polarization that exists in much of the region around populist, left-wing presidents who have been democratically-elected yet who have exercised power in an autocratic and controversial fashion. These leaders have both high approval and disapproval ratings. They have also enjoyed tense relations with the United States under the Bush Administration. Populist, left-wing leaders have come to power in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. While except for Venezuela, these countries do not represent the most economically powerful nations in Latin America, the political influence of these leaders, when taken together, is substantial. Together with Cuba, they have appeared intent over the past couple of years to create an economic and political bloc positioned against the United States. However, these leaders, particularly Chavez and Morales, are waiting to see what position to take with the new administration. They are astute and understand that dealing with Obama, today the world's most popular political figure, requires a significantly different strategy than dealing with Bush, who they could lambast at will because of his worldwide unpopularity. I believe that, except for Ortega and Raul Castro, who came of age in an earlier generation of communist-capitalist conflict, these leaders will wait for Obama to act first before positioning themselves against his government.
Personally, I believe our president would be well-served in designing an intelligent policy that made it clear that the United States desires engagement and cooperation. We should make it clear that we seek to find common ground on the issues that we can work together on, such as trade, economic development, energy, climate change, and social welfare. In demonstrating our commitment to social welfare in our own country and in the region, we can diffuse much of the attacks directed against us by these leaders. Once engaged, I believe that we should not hesitate to use our bully pulpit to publically disagree with these leaders on issues of democracy, human rights, and freedom of expression. We should also express our concern with the failures of these leaders in the areas of violent crime and the drug trade, while radically changing our policy on arms exports to the region. However, we should not allow these issues to overwhelm our interest in working together.
Because of his international background, his message of change, and his worldwide popularity, President Obama will have the opportunity and ability to influence these leaders. He should do so, but should also work hard to obtain support for our positions in the region from our main allies, especially Brazil and Mexico. Going it alone has led us nowhere so many times in Latin America, and will be the surest way to destroy our new President's valuable political capital.
Monday, November 24
Sunday, November 16
Issue # 1: The World Economic Crisis, President Obama, the G-20, and Latin America
After a paradigm-shifting election, a paradigm-shifting conference?
This weekend, for the first time, the Heads of State of the G-20 countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America) met in Washington to coordinate solutions to the global economic and financial crisis. Called by lame duck President Bush, the meeting was lampooned by pundits all week as doomed to irrelevance due to the lack of leadership and gridlock present. President-Elect Obama wisely declined to participate while sending representatives to observe it all. I say this is wise even though the crisis is severe and demands immediate attention, because America only has 1 president at a time and infighting between the outgoing Bush team and the incoming Obama team, which have starkly different views on many of the issues discussed, would only weaken the conference further. Moreover, this approach enables our President-Elect to remain separate from our discredited current President and continue to receive earnest goodwill and overtures of cooperation from the rest of the world. I believe it is much more crucial, regardless of how much worse the situation is in January, that President Obama continue to receive this goodwill and cooperation deep into next year, so that we can actually create a solution, and not temporary fixes, to this grave crisis.
While the Conference, as expected, has largely been devoid of agreement on a coordinated global policy response, I would argue that its symbolism has been very significant. In and of itself, the protagonism in this meeting of emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India evidences that the Bretton Woods financial and economic order created by the U.S. and Europe after World War II is obsolete. Despite his many faults and increasing irrelevance, President Bush should be applauded for recognizing this and expanding the invitation list to this global summit. We are the doorstep of a new multilateral economic order where the United States will be one of many important actors. Don't be fooled by the pundits and newspapers in this country who make light of this event. One only needs to look to the international media to see its significance for the rest of the world. For example, Folha de Sao Paulo, perhaps Brazil's most respected newspaper, spoke enthusiastically about the importance of the Conference and Brazil's leadership. According to columnist Kennedy Alencar, "this meeting in Washington was a goal scored" for the world community, and an indication that it is time for Brazil to "think big" about its influence.
Luckily, we will have a President at the helm who not only represents the best of America, but the best of the entire world. The relatively muted criticism of the U.S. from other countries about a crisis that was born here and facilitated by our government shows the incredible amount of goodwill and hope that the world has towards this man and our new government. Many of the policies espoused by the incoming Administration, such as additional economic stimulus and an overhaul of the global regulatory system, are echoed by other major powers. Clearly, President-Elect Obama and his Administration face enormous expectations and a significant challenge.
Our Future Latin American Partners
In developing a coordinated global policy response, in addition to our traditional European and Asian allies, President Obama should look for common ground with our partners in Latin America. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are all part of the G-20, and all have reasons to support the U.S. They are all democracies that have embraced one form or another of market capitalism over the past 20 years. They all have had strong trade relationships with the United States for many years. There are obvious partnerships which can be built in this Adminstration and the years that follow with these countries on issues affecting the economy such as energy, the environment, food, poverty, trade and investment. Their wealthiest citizens and corporations have invested heavily in the United States over the past decade, and their citizens make up a substantial portion of this country's immigrant population. Most of all, they can even offer advice from their own relatively recent experiences with financial and economic crisis. This is a perspective that our European allies cannot provide. Meanwhile, neither China, India nor Russia, three other crucial players, have the same incentive to bandwagon with the United States, even under Barack Obama. It will be up to President Obama to exercise clear leadership at the next summit and convince these countries that they should join the U.S. in taking action, not because it will help us, but because we need them on board so that we can remake the world economy and benefit all of us, including them.
The Pivotal Role of Brazil
Brazil will be particularly important because of rising economic clout, its presidency of the G-20, its political leadership and clout among developing and non-aligned countries, and the popularity of its president, Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who this month led the Economist's public opinion poll Latinobarometer as the Latin World's "most outstanding leader." In the region, and particularly in vitally important South America, Brazil is widely viewed as a leader, conciliator and lynchpin between right-wing and left-wing leaders and countries. Under Lula's presidency, the government has worked hard to strengthen its ties and influence in South America, maintaining good relations with both Colombia's Uribe, a strong U.S. ally, and Venezuela's Chavez, a strong U.S. critic. Because of this, Brazil's position holds significant clout in Latin America, particularly when the electoral fortunes of Venezuela's ambitious president Chavez are suffering.
Meanwhile, Brazil's economy and financial markets were the Cinderella story of 2007 and much of 2008. Until October, the country seemed to be removed from the financial turmoil affecting the U.S. and much of the world, and the international community was noticing. In July, the third largest stock exchange in the world, the BM&F Bovespa, was created in Brazil, an event which was followed by the country's rise to investment grade among two of the three major ratings agencies in the world, Standard & Poor's and Moody's. It is no wonder that the downward slide currently affecting the country has its government angry at the United States for creating this crisis.
Finally, there are many opportunities for collaboration and exchange of ideas in alternative energy policy between Brazil and the U.S. Brazil is already a world leader in sugarcane ethanol production and is quickly advancing its production of other biofuels like biodiesel. The country has spent the past 30 years developing a highly advanced ethanol industry, and the United States could benefit much from their experience. Heightened cooperation on alternative energy could also have an additional benefit of establishing a new, more secure source of oil, as Brazil's reserves are among the largest in the world and the country could become almost as big of an oil producer as Venezuela in the coming years.
President Lula called the Conference a "historic day" where "the political geography of the world gained a new dimension." He said that the G-8 will become just a "club of friends." However, in the past, President Lula has placed much of the responsibility for fixing the world economic crisis on the United States and Europe, saying that they created the crisis and therefore should fix it and the effects on developing and emerging nations. It will be up to President Obama to show President Lula and other important leaders that no matter where this crisis started, the solution is one for the world community and requires their participation and leadership. Of course, President-Elect Obama, true to fashion, has already shown remarkable foresight in this relationship. In a phone call to Lula on November 11th, President-Elect Obama extended his support to Brazil's leadership of the G-20, recognized it as the proper forum to solve the global financial crisis, and indicated his willingness to discuss collaboration with Brazil on economic growth, alternative energy, and social programs. He told Lula essentially that he would support Brazilian participation in a future reform of the U.N. Security Council, and promised to visit the country at his earliest convenience.
If President Obama continues to give Brazil the attention it deserves early on, there is good reason to believe that the country will support the U.S. position in these crucial financial negotiations. First of all, Brazil and the United States share great historical, geographic and cultural similarities. As Professor Kenneth Maxwell put it in his 2005 article in The Harvard Review of Latin America,
"both the United States and Brazil are continent-sized nations. Each has a vibrant national culture. Each of their societies is composed of the descendents of large migrations with populations that are part of overlapping global diasporas. Both countries must deal with the deep-rooted heritage and lingering injustices of centuries of African slavery. Both were influenced by frontier cultures in which settlers often clashed with indigenous populations. Each created a domestic market large enough to create the illusion that they do not need to compete internationally or worry too much about international trade. Both have had an ambiguous relationship with the outside world, at times heavily involved but at other moments in their history retreating into isolationism. Both have domestic politics that are excessively local in which parochial interests prevail. Each has complex regional, federal and state interests that require conciliation."
These similarities are part of the reason that President-Elect Obama is extremely popular in Brazil. Last month, eight Brazilian candidates in municipal elections adopted his name as their own (a uniquely Brazilian practice) in an effort to increase their electability. Obama's presidential victory was celebrated across Brazil much as it was in the United States. This popularity puts pressure on Brazil's government to seek a closer relationship with the U.S.
Secondly, Brazil's financial and commercial sectors are more heavily invested in the U.S. now than they were at the beginning of the decade. These groups will push the government to support the U.S. position. Thirdly, Brazil knows that cooperation with the new Administration in this crucial first test will increase collaboration on energy and trade policy. Finally, U.S. support would bolster Brazil's chances of success in its efforts to obtain a U.N. Security Council seat and increased participation in the IMF and World Bank.
The crucial role of our closest Southern neighbor
Though not as economically significant to the world economy as Brazil, Mexico is also crucial to these global economic negotiations. The Mexican economy is intimately tied to the U.S. economy historically, through NAFTA, and through the millions of Mexican workers that have come to the United States and contributed to this economy. Obviously, the immigration issue is a crucial one in this relationship, as are the possible renegotiation of NAFTA and drug and arms control. Despite the fact that these will be controversial issues within our borders and will be challenges for the Obama Administration, we should not let them overlap our interest in having Mexico by our side in these financial negotiations. It is just as important to have Mexico by us as it is to have Brazil or Canada. After all, 90% of Mexican exports and 50% of Mexican imports come from trade with the United States and Canada. Mexico's economy is the 10th to 12th largest in the world, and exports to the United States represent around a quarter of the country's GDP. Despite this interconnection, before the current global slide, Mexico's financial markets were doing well and the country seemed resilient against the backdrop of the U.S. housing and credit crises. Like Brazil, the country has implemented unprecedented macroeconomic stability over the past 10 years, reducing the public debt and increasing the size of the private sector economy. The U.S. is heavily invested in Mexico, and in past years, Mexican private and public investors have increased their participation in the U.S. economy. Finally, Mexico's large oil and gas reserves, and its relation as the third largest oil exporter and eighth largest crude exporter to the U.S. means that it should be included in the Obama Administration's design of a new energy policy.
All of these economic linkages mean not only that it is in Mexico's interest to support the U.S. position in these negotiations, but also that Mexico's concerns are important to the United States. Recently, President-Elect Obama indicated that he would not visit Mexico in his first year in office, due to his focus on this financial crisis and probably due to the fact that he may not be able to focus on immigration, NAFTA and drugs/arms in his first year. While this may be necessary, I believe that President Obama should make sure that Mexico is included among the big players in the global financial negotiations. If he cannot go to Mexico, he would likely benefit from inviting President Calderon to the White House as soon as possible. I believe if we give Mexico the role it deserves in these global talks, it will make it all the more easier to discuss issues like immigration, NAFTA and drugs/arms. Moreover, Mexican-Americans represent the largest portion of the U.S. Latino population. Their issues therefore should be paramount for this Administration, who received so much of their support. If Obama takes meaningful action on immigration, NAFTA, drug and arms control, he will ensure a large portion of Latino support for his re-election and for the Democratic party for years to come. One strong step he can take in this direction is to make Mexico a major player in the global financial negotiations.
We should not underestimate the importance of Argentina
Argentina could be considered by many observers to be the "black sheep" of the G-20. The country continues to owe international investors billions of dollars in unpaid debt seven years after its financial collapse and has been hit hard by the current crisis. The country just nationalized its private pension fund system in an effort to stave off a new default. Under its new president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina's six years of strong economic growth have vanished and the country's fortunes and politics have been tied more firmly to those of Venezuela and its anti-U.S. president, Hugo Chavez.
Because of these realities, to some, it would seem to some that Argentina is relatively irrelevant on the G-20 and that we need not seek out their support. I would argue that Argentina's economic standing is not its only value in the region. Because of Argentina's political importance in Latin America, particularly among left-wing governments, obtaining their support would gain the support of the entire region, even countries traditionally opposed to us. Because Ms. Fernandez de Kirchner has a more ambivalent relationship with the United States than Venezuela's Chavez or Bolivia's Evo Morales, there is a greater potential for collaboration on the global financial situation. As neither of these polarizing leaders are actors in the G-20, if we can convince Ms. Fernandez de Kirchner to support our position, we can indirectly encourage their support of our position or at least make them seem like marginal actors in the region.
This weekend, President Fernandez de Kirchner met with Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT), the President of the Subcommittee for the Western Hemisphere, Representative Ellio Engles, and Dan Restrepo, Obama's Principal Advisor for Latin America. According to Mr. Restrepo, who gave an interview to Argentina's Clarin newspaper after the meeting, the Obama Administration anticipates a positive relationship but "where Argentina goes will determine this relationship." I think this is a wise position, as long as we keep in mind Argentina's political influence in the rest of South America.
Latin America's Experience with Financial Crisis
This weekend, for the first time, the Heads of State of the G-20 countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America) met in Washington to coordinate solutions to the global economic and financial crisis. Called by lame duck President Bush, the meeting was lampooned by pundits all week as doomed to irrelevance due to the lack of leadership and gridlock present. President-Elect Obama wisely declined to participate while sending representatives to observe it all. I say this is wise even though the crisis is severe and demands immediate attention, because America only has 1 president at a time and infighting between the outgoing Bush team and the incoming Obama team, which have starkly different views on many of the issues discussed, would only weaken the conference further. Moreover, this approach enables our President-Elect to remain separate from our discredited current President and continue to receive earnest goodwill and overtures of cooperation from the rest of the world. I believe it is much more crucial, regardless of how much worse the situation is in January, that President Obama continue to receive this goodwill and cooperation deep into next year, so that we can actually create a solution, and not temporary fixes, to this grave crisis.
While the Conference, as expected, has largely been devoid of agreement on a coordinated global policy response, I would argue that its symbolism has been very significant. In and of itself, the protagonism in this meeting of emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India evidences that the Bretton Woods financial and economic order created by the U.S. and Europe after World War II is obsolete. Despite his many faults and increasing irrelevance, President Bush should be applauded for recognizing this and expanding the invitation list to this global summit. We are the doorstep of a new multilateral economic order where the United States will be one of many important actors. Don't be fooled by the pundits and newspapers in this country who make light of this event. One only needs to look to the international media to see its significance for the rest of the world. For example, Folha de Sao Paulo, perhaps Brazil's most respected newspaper, spoke enthusiastically about the importance of the Conference and Brazil's leadership. According to columnist Kennedy Alencar, "this meeting in Washington was a goal scored" for the world community, and an indication that it is time for Brazil to "think big" about its influence.
Luckily, we will have a President at the helm who not only represents the best of America, but the best of the entire world. The relatively muted criticism of the U.S. from other countries about a crisis that was born here and facilitated by our government shows the incredible amount of goodwill and hope that the world has towards this man and our new government. Many of the policies espoused by the incoming Administration, such as additional economic stimulus and an overhaul of the global regulatory system, are echoed by other major powers. Clearly, President-Elect Obama and his Administration face enormous expectations and a significant challenge.
Our Future Latin American Partners
In developing a coordinated global policy response, in addition to our traditional European and Asian allies, President Obama should look for common ground with our partners in Latin America. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are all part of the G-20, and all have reasons to support the U.S. They are all democracies that have embraced one form or another of market capitalism over the past 20 years. They all have had strong trade relationships with the United States for many years. There are obvious partnerships which can be built in this Adminstration and the years that follow with these countries on issues affecting the economy such as energy, the environment, food, poverty, trade and investment. Their wealthiest citizens and corporations have invested heavily in the United States over the past decade, and their citizens make up a substantial portion of this country's immigrant population. Most of all, they can even offer advice from their own relatively recent experiences with financial and economic crisis. This is a perspective that our European allies cannot provide. Meanwhile, neither China, India nor Russia, three other crucial players, have the same incentive to bandwagon with the United States, even under Barack Obama. It will be up to President Obama to exercise clear leadership at the next summit and convince these countries that they should join the U.S. in taking action, not because it will help us, but because we need them on board so that we can remake the world economy and benefit all of us, including them.
The Pivotal Role of Brazil
Brazil will be particularly important because of rising economic clout, its presidency of the G-20, its political leadership and clout among developing and non-aligned countries, and the popularity of its president, Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who this month led the Economist's public opinion poll Latinobarometer as the Latin World's "most outstanding leader." In the region, and particularly in vitally important South America, Brazil is widely viewed as a leader, conciliator and lynchpin between right-wing and left-wing leaders and countries. Under Lula's presidency, the government has worked hard to strengthen its ties and influence in South America, maintaining good relations with both Colombia's Uribe, a strong U.S. ally, and Venezuela's Chavez, a strong U.S. critic. Because of this, Brazil's position holds significant clout in Latin America, particularly when the electoral fortunes of Venezuela's ambitious president Chavez are suffering.
Meanwhile, Brazil's economy and financial markets were the Cinderella story of 2007 and much of 2008. Until October, the country seemed to be removed from the financial turmoil affecting the U.S. and much of the world, and the international community was noticing. In July, the third largest stock exchange in the world, the BM&F Bovespa, was created in Brazil, an event which was followed by the country's rise to investment grade among two of the three major ratings agencies in the world, Standard & Poor's and Moody's. It is no wonder that the downward slide currently affecting the country has its government angry at the United States for creating this crisis.
Finally, there are many opportunities for collaboration and exchange of ideas in alternative energy policy between Brazil and the U.S. Brazil is already a world leader in sugarcane ethanol production and is quickly advancing its production of other biofuels like biodiesel. The country has spent the past 30 years developing a highly advanced ethanol industry, and the United States could benefit much from their experience. Heightened cooperation on alternative energy could also have an additional benefit of establishing a new, more secure source of oil, as Brazil's reserves are among the largest in the world and the country could become almost as big of an oil producer as Venezuela in the coming years.
President Lula called the Conference a "historic day" where "the political geography of the world gained a new dimension." He said that the G-8 will become just a "club of friends." However, in the past, President Lula has placed much of the responsibility for fixing the world economic crisis on the United States and Europe, saying that they created the crisis and therefore should fix it and the effects on developing and emerging nations. It will be up to President Obama to show President Lula and other important leaders that no matter where this crisis started, the solution is one for the world community and requires their participation and leadership. Of course, President-Elect Obama, true to fashion, has already shown remarkable foresight in this relationship. In a phone call to Lula on November 11th, President-Elect Obama extended his support to Brazil's leadership of the G-20, recognized it as the proper forum to solve the global financial crisis, and indicated his willingness to discuss collaboration with Brazil on economic growth, alternative energy, and social programs. He told Lula essentially that he would support Brazilian participation in a future reform of the U.N. Security Council, and promised to visit the country at his earliest convenience.
If President Obama continues to give Brazil the attention it deserves early on, there is good reason to believe that the country will support the U.S. position in these crucial financial negotiations. First of all, Brazil and the United States share great historical, geographic and cultural similarities. As Professor Kenneth Maxwell put it in his 2005 article in The Harvard Review of Latin America,
"both the United States and Brazil are continent-sized nations. Each has a vibrant national culture. Each of their societies is composed of the descendents of large migrations with populations that are part of overlapping global diasporas. Both countries must deal with the deep-rooted heritage and lingering injustices of centuries of African slavery. Both were influenced by frontier cultures in which settlers often clashed with indigenous populations. Each created a domestic market large enough to create the illusion that they do not need to compete internationally or worry too much about international trade. Both have had an ambiguous relationship with the outside world, at times heavily involved but at other moments in their history retreating into isolationism. Both have domestic politics that are excessively local in which parochial interests prevail. Each has complex regional, federal and state interests that require conciliation."
These similarities are part of the reason that President-Elect Obama is extremely popular in Brazil. Last month, eight Brazilian candidates in municipal elections adopted his name as their own (a uniquely Brazilian practice) in an effort to increase their electability. Obama's presidential victory was celebrated across Brazil much as it was in the United States. This popularity puts pressure on Brazil's government to seek a closer relationship with the U.S.
Secondly, Brazil's financial and commercial sectors are more heavily invested in the U.S. now than they were at the beginning of the decade. These groups will push the government to support the U.S. position. Thirdly, Brazil knows that cooperation with the new Administration in this crucial first test will increase collaboration on energy and trade policy. Finally, U.S. support would bolster Brazil's chances of success in its efforts to obtain a U.N. Security Council seat and increased participation in the IMF and World Bank.
The crucial role of our closest Southern neighbor
Though not as economically significant to the world economy as Brazil, Mexico is also crucial to these global economic negotiations. The Mexican economy is intimately tied to the U.S. economy historically, through NAFTA, and through the millions of Mexican workers that have come to the United States and contributed to this economy. Obviously, the immigration issue is a crucial one in this relationship, as are the possible renegotiation of NAFTA and drug and arms control. Despite the fact that these will be controversial issues within our borders and will be challenges for the Obama Administration, we should not let them overlap our interest in having Mexico by our side in these financial negotiations. It is just as important to have Mexico by us as it is to have Brazil or Canada. After all, 90% of Mexican exports and 50% of Mexican imports come from trade with the United States and Canada. Mexico's economy is the 10th to 12th largest in the world, and exports to the United States represent around a quarter of the country's GDP. Despite this interconnection, before the current global slide, Mexico's financial markets were doing well and the country seemed resilient against the backdrop of the U.S. housing and credit crises. Like Brazil, the country has implemented unprecedented macroeconomic stability over the past 10 years, reducing the public debt and increasing the size of the private sector economy. The U.S. is heavily invested in Mexico, and in past years, Mexican private and public investors have increased their participation in the U.S. economy. Finally, Mexico's large oil and gas reserves, and its relation as the third largest oil exporter and eighth largest crude exporter to the U.S. means that it should be included in the Obama Administration's design of a new energy policy.
All of these economic linkages mean not only that it is in Mexico's interest to support the U.S. position in these negotiations, but also that Mexico's concerns are important to the United States. Recently, President-Elect Obama indicated that he would not visit Mexico in his first year in office, due to his focus on this financial crisis and probably due to the fact that he may not be able to focus on immigration, NAFTA and drugs/arms in his first year. While this may be necessary, I believe that President Obama should make sure that Mexico is included among the big players in the global financial negotiations. If he cannot go to Mexico, he would likely benefit from inviting President Calderon to the White House as soon as possible. I believe if we give Mexico the role it deserves in these global talks, it will make it all the more easier to discuss issues like immigration, NAFTA and drugs/arms. Moreover, Mexican-Americans represent the largest portion of the U.S. Latino population. Their issues therefore should be paramount for this Administration, who received so much of their support. If Obama takes meaningful action on immigration, NAFTA, drug and arms control, he will ensure a large portion of Latino support for his re-election and for the Democratic party for years to come. One strong step he can take in this direction is to make Mexico a major player in the global financial negotiations.
We should not underestimate the importance of Argentina
Argentina could be considered by many observers to be the "black sheep" of the G-20. The country continues to owe international investors billions of dollars in unpaid debt seven years after its financial collapse and has been hit hard by the current crisis. The country just nationalized its private pension fund system in an effort to stave off a new default. Under its new president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina's six years of strong economic growth have vanished and the country's fortunes and politics have been tied more firmly to those of Venezuela and its anti-U.S. president, Hugo Chavez.
Because of these realities, to some, it would seem to some that Argentina is relatively irrelevant on the G-20 and that we need not seek out their support. I would argue that Argentina's economic standing is not its only value in the region. Because of Argentina's political importance in Latin America, particularly among left-wing governments, obtaining their support would gain the support of the entire region, even countries traditionally opposed to us. Because Ms. Fernandez de Kirchner has a more ambivalent relationship with the United States than Venezuela's Chavez or Bolivia's Evo Morales, there is a greater potential for collaboration on the global financial situation. As neither of these polarizing leaders are actors in the G-20, if we can convince Ms. Fernandez de Kirchner to support our position, we can indirectly encourage their support of our position or at least make them seem like marginal actors in the region.
This weekend, President Fernandez de Kirchner met with Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT), the President of the Subcommittee for the Western Hemisphere, Representative Ellio Engles, and Dan Restrepo, Obama's Principal Advisor for Latin America. According to Mr. Restrepo, who gave an interview to Argentina's Clarin newspaper after the meeting, the Obama Administration anticipates a positive relationship but "where Argentina goes will determine this relationship." I think this is a wise position, as long as we keep in mind Argentina's political influence in the rest of South America.
Latin America's Experience with Financial Crisis
Finally, one last benefit of strengthening our relationships with Latin America during this global financial crisis is the lessons that these countries and their leaders can impart to us on surviving serious financial crises. In the past, our country has not shown much willingness to learn from our southern neighbors. More often, we have been used to imparting advice and, particularly in the area of economics, dictating policy. However, the current severe crisis was engendered within our borders, and should give us all reason to pause and wonder what we can learn from the rest of the world. We hear the politicians and pundits all talk about the Great Depression. But why not also talk about more recent crises that occurred in the current system of globalization we are in. The Asian Financial Crisis is one example, but certainly not the only one. Both Mexico in 1994 and Brazil in 1998 suffered severe financial crises. Argentina, of course, suffered a historic economic collapse in 2001 whose effects continue to be felt in the country. Brazil and Mexico both bounced back from their financial messes, and created sustainable, growing economies that have lifted many out of poverty in these countries over the last 10 years. Because of the financial panics both suffered in the 1990's, both countries have solid and conservatively run banking sectors. Surely we can learn from these countries recent, successful experiences dealing with such economic calamities. It is time for our country to shed our developed world prejudices. I'm almost certain that President-Elect Obama sees it this way as well.
Wednesday, November 12
Upcoming Posts
I wanted to let all readers know about my upcoming posts, so you can comment on them as you wish. I have been very busy over the last few days, and in our 24 hour digital speed era, there is so much news to report on and so much I would like to write about. I decided to focus on the death of Marcello Lucero in my last posting because it struck a deep emotional chord in me just one week after Obama's victory. In my next three posts, I hope to discuss (1) the reaction of ordinary Latin Americans to Obama's victory and the multiplier effect of "yes we can" in the U.S. and Latin America, (2) the world financial crisis and one reason why Obama should forge a strong relationship with Brazil and its President, Lula, and (3) Obama, Hugo Chavez and the coming fight for Latin American public opinion and grassroots politics. These will be general posts focusing on news articles and opinions of the day. After this, I hope to begin a series of discussions on issues central to the relationship between the U.S. and Latin America, the Obama position on these issues, and recommendations. This will be followed by a series of postings on different countries in the region discussing the specific issues in our bilateral relationship, Obama's position, and Obama's potential relationship with that country and its leader. Of course, in this lightning speed world, I may interrupt this sequence to comment on events of the day. But my goal will be to discuss all of these issues and countries before Obama is inaugurated on January 20, 2009. After that, we will have real policy to debate and discuss. Until then, everything is speculation, and I think the discussion of the challenges and opportunities he faces in issues and countries will be infinately more interesting. Let me know what you think.
Tuesday, November 11
Letter to President-Elect Obama about Hate Crimes against Latinos
Dear President-Elect Obama,
For the past two years, you have inspired Americans, myself included, to believe we can change. Your inspiring personal story and triumphs have shown us that with hard work, determination and a positive spirit, in America, anything is possible. Many of us feel particularly connected to your mixed racial and immigrant background, and see in you the America of the future, the America we know, where being of the world and being of America are one and the same. Most of all, you have reminded us of all of the challenges that Americans have faced throughout our history, and that if we just remember that "yes we can" change our lives, our communities and our countries for the better, we have the power to do so.
I celebrated your victory last week dancing in the streets of Times Square with Americans and citizens of the world of all shades and stripes who, once again, were proud of this nation. A week later, having heard the inspirational stories of Americans who have followed your lead and begun to change their lives and communities, as well as the hope for your leadership around the world, I am extremely optimistic about the promise of this country under your direction. In my own life, they have already had a personal impact. Your victory and your words last Tuesday night inspired me to start this Blog and draw attention to Latin America and Latinos among my social network.
While your victory may represent the beginning of a new era in this country, events even this week remind us of the challenges we face in so many areas, from the economy to foreign policy. I wanted to focus on just one of these events today, one that reminded me that even after your election, racism remains a problem for our nation. The tragic death of Marcello Lucero, an Ecuadorian immigrant stabbed and beaten to death by seven teenagers in Long Island, shows us that the scourge of hate crimes remains a plague on our people. Mr. Lucero came legally to the United States 16 years ago in search of the American Dream. By all accounts, he was a quiet and thoughtful man who avoided arguments and went out of his way to help others. A hard worker and an athlete who called his mother in Ecuador every week, Mr. Lucero was well-liked by those that knew him. Just last week, he was elated by your election, seeing it as "a chance for people with brown skin to be seen as equals." Instead, he was killed Saturday by seven teenagers "looking to kill a Hispanic - any Hispanic."
Marcello Lucero is hardly the only victim of a hate crime against Latinos. In fact, according to the FBI, hate crimes against Latinos represent 61% of the total hate crimes committed in the United States. The number of hate crimes against Latinos has risen dramatically over the last five years. According to the Department of Justice's Bureau of Justice Statistics, the real annual level of hate crimes in the United States averaged some 191,000 incidents, about 20 to 30 times above the reported number of these crimes.
Over the years, I have met so many Latino brothers and sisters like Marcello Lucero all over this country. No matter how we arrive in America, the vast majority of Latinos come to this country for a better life. We work hard, often voluntarily placing ourselves at the back of the line and at the bottom of the pyramid so that we can achieve what we could not in our mother countries. Latinos are proud of both the United States and our mother countries. Though we may suffer humiliation or setbacks in working towards our dreams, we believe in the transformative power of this country. Even during the Bush years, with draconian immigration policies, increased xenophobia, and difficult economic times, we continue to come to the United States legally in large numbers. Every day, more of us become citizens. We are the largest minority in this country and soon will be 25% of the population.
Latinos like me voted for you, President-Elect Obama, because you inspired us to believe in the power of change and ideas once again. So many of us, including myself and the late Marcello Lucero, believe that your election means a new time for race relations in America. We hope it also means a progressive immigration policy, a new engagement with Latin America and a zero tolerence policy on racism and hate crimes like the one that ended the life of Mr. Lucero. Given the ugly and overtly racist rhetoric routinely spouted against Latinos by the opponents of immigration reform over the past several years, it is no surprise that hate crimes against us have risen so dramatically. Gays and lesbians have suffered a similar fate because of the equally dispicable language used by many opponents of gay marriage.
I write this letter in the hope that as President-Elect and as President, you will continue to set a civil and elevated tone to the immigration debate and any other that has the potential to encite hatred in this country. I hope you will work together with all parties to provide progressive solutions to our countries continuing problems with discrimination and hatred, and will use the bully pulpit of the Presidency to chastise those who use the public forum to rail against any racial, ethnic, religious, gender, sexual orientation or other group. Finally, I hope that you will pass federal hate crimes legislation and comprehensive immigration reform shortly after you become President. Because I strongly believe in your leadership and the ideas behind your campaign and Presidency, I know that you will do this. I remain your citizen and servant in the effort to remake this country.
Sincerely,
David A. Rondon, Esq.
For the past two years, you have inspired Americans, myself included, to believe we can change. Your inspiring personal story and triumphs have shown us that with hard work, determination and a positive spirit, in America, anything is possible. Many of us feel particularly connected to your mixed racial and immigrant background, and see in you the America of the future, the America we know, where being of the world and being of America are one and the same. Most of all, you have reminded us of all of the challenges that Americans have faced throughout our history, and that if we just remember that "yes we can" change our lives, our communities and our countries for the better, we have the power to do so.
I celebrated your victory last week dancing in the streets of Times Square with Americans and citizens of the world of all shades and stripes who, once again, were proud of this nation. A week later, having heard the inspirational stories of Americans who have followed your lead and begun to change their lives and communities, as well as the hope for your leadership around the world, I am extremely optimistic about the promise of this country under your direction. In my own life, they have already had a personal impact. Your victory and your words last Tuesday night inspired me to start this Blog and draw attention to Latin America and Latinos among my social network.
While your victory may represent the beginning of a new era in this country, events even this week remind us of the challenges we face in so many areas, from the economy to foreign policy. I wanted to focus on just one of these events today, one that reminded me that even after your election, racism remains a problem for our nation. The tragic death of Marcello Lucero, an Ecuadorian immigrant stabbed and beaten to death by seven teenagers in Long Island, shows us that the scourge of hate crimes remains a plague on our people. Mr. Lucero came legally to the United States 16 years ago in search of the American Dream. By all accounts, he was a quiet and thoughtful man who avoided arguments and went out of his way to help others. A hard worker and an athlete who called his mother in Ecuador every week, Mr. Lucero was well-liked by those that knew him. Just last week, he was elated by your election, seeing it as "a chance for people with brown skin to be seen as equals." Instead, he was killed Saturday by seven teenagers "looking to kill a Hispanic - any Hispanic."
Marcello Lucero is hardly the only victim of a hate crime against Latinos. In fact, according to the FBI, hate crimes against Latinos represent 61% of the total hate crimes committed in the United States. The number of hate crimes against Latinos has risen dramatically over the last five years. According to the Department of Justice's Bureau of Justice Statistics, the real annual level of hate crimes in the United States averaged some 191,000 incidents, about 20 to 30 times above the reported number of these crimes.
Over the years, I have met so many Latino brothers and sisters like Marcello Lucero all over this country. No matter how we arrive in America, the vast majority of Latinos come to this country for a better life. We work hard, often voluntarily placing ourselves at the back of the line and at the bottom of the pyramid so that we can achieve what we could not in our mother countries. Latinos are proud of both the United States and our mother countries. Though we may suffer humiliation or setbacks in working towards our dreams, we believe in the transformative power of this country. Even during the Bush years, with draconian immigration policies, increased xenophobia, and difficult economic times, we continue to come to the United States legally in large numbers. Every day, more of us become citizens. We are the largest minority in this country and soon will be 25% of the population.
Latinos like me voted for you, President-Elect Obama, because you inspired us to believe in the power of change and ideas once again. So many of us, including myself and the late Marcello Lucero, believe that your election means a new time for race relations in America. We hope it also means a progressive immigration policy, a new engagement with Latin America and a zero tolerence policy on racism and hate crimes like the one that ended the life of Mr. Lucero. Given the ugly and overtly racist rhetoric routinely spouted against Latinos by the opponents of immigration reform over the past several years, it is no surprise that hate crimes against us have risen so dramatically. Gays and lesbians have suffered a similar fate because of the equally dispicable language used by many opponents of gay marriage.
I write this letter in the hope that as President-Elect and as President, you will continue to set a civil and elevated tone to the immigration debate and any other that has the potential to encite hatred in this country. I hope you will work together with all parties to provide progressive solutions to our countries continuing problems with discrimination and hatred, and will use the bully pulpit of the Presidency to chastise those who use the public forum to rail against any racial, ethnic, religious, gender, sexual orientation or other group. Finally, I hope that you will pass federal hate crimes legislation and comprehensive immigration reform shortly after you become President. Because I strongly believe in your leadership and the ideas behind your campaign and Presidency, I know that you will do this. I remain your citizen and servant in the effort to remake this country.
Sincerely,
David A. Rondon, Esq.
Friday, November 7
A Global Icon and High Expectations: Obama through the Eyes of the Latin America's Leaders and Press
The attention paid to President-Elect Barack Obama around the world since his election this Tuesday has been unprecedented in recent times. Perhaps never before has one politician ignited so much hope and such high expectations. Despite the dismal economic news coming home to roost this afternoon, Obama has ignited a renewed sense of pride in Americans and a new promise of leadership for the rest of the world. He has been the toast of the international press, who in his story and improbable victory have found connections to their own nations and have once again found a reason to praise the United States.
The attention received by President-Elect Obama in the Latin American press has been astounding, as in other parts of the world. Leading newspapers across South and Central America hailed the new American president as an inspirational figure who strikes a chord due to his biracial background. On Wednesday morning, Obama's name and image was plastered across the front page of all of the region's major dailies. On a popular Argentine / Pan-Latin American news and analysis site, Nueva Mayoria.com, journalist Rosendo Fraga writes of Obama's significance in the Western Hemisphere. According to Fraga, Obama has "profound significance" first, because he will be the "first African-American president" in the Western world, second, because he has inspired millions of new and young voters, and third, because in this globalized election, 4/5 of the world's population would have voted for Obama. All of this goodwill, according to Fraga, will allow President Obama to embody and more effectively exercise "soft power," or the power of American ideals like pluralism, liberty and social progress. This contrasts sharply with Bush's ability to exercise only "hard power," or military and economic might.
This potential impact of this "soft power" is already palpable in the reaction of Latin America's people and press to Obama's election. Sergio Malbergier, editor of the Money section at Folha de Sao Paulo, one of Brazil's most respected newspapers, said the following of President-Elect Obama: "Obama is a global phenomenon. His victory reflects not only the choice of a majority of Americans, but of the vast majority of human beings. This gives him even more legitimacy as a leader. And leadership will be necessary to take the world out of this increasingly large and ugly recession."
The reaction of Latin American heads of state to Obama's victory shows they understand the global popularity of the President-Elect and the impact he could have in the region. They also understand they will have to challenge him to engage the region. Brazil's President Lula da Silva, perhaps the region's most powerful leader, congratulated Obama on his historic victory but also challenged him to end the Cuban Embargo and to create a stronger relationship with Latin America, South America and, in particular, Brazil. Meanwhile, Felipe Calderon of Mexico was the first head of state to congratulate Obama, inviting him to visit the country and calling for "a new era of progress in the relationships between the two countries, based on responsibility, frank dialogue, respect and mutual confidence."
The reaction of leaders who have had conflictive relationships with the United States to Obama's election is also telling of their recognition of his popularity in the region. Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, one of the region's most anti-U.S. leaders, called Obama's election "historic" and affirmed a willingness to establish "new relations" with the United States and build a "constructive bilateral agenda." Evo Morales of Bolivia, who has had difficulty with the Bush Administration and presides over one of Latin America's most volatile nations, called Obama's triumph "truly historic" and hoped for "improve relations" with the U.S. Even Fidel Castro praised Obama's triumph. Given that Castro is on his way out, Chavez's popularity is suffering due to economic downturn and political fatigue after 10 years in power, and Morales presides over a divided nation, it is no surprise that they would want to bandwagon with Obama. He's probably more popular than these autocrats are in their own countries and the region. I think our new President will have a significant opportunity to push hard for more open societies and human rights in these countries. It will be much more difficult for them to caricature Obama than it was Bush, though I'm sure Chavez will try.
Until now, President-Elect Obama has only provided a rough sketch as to what his Latin America policy will look like. At a future date, I will discuss my views the specifics of this policy. For now, it is likely that the issues of immigration and trade policy will dominate his regional agenda during his first year in office. Because of our economic crisis and two wars abroad, it is likely that much Latin America policy will be crafted away from the cameras. That being said, because of his popularity in the world and the region, I believe that the Obama Administration's policy would benefit greatly from some facetime by the President-Elect in the region. The truth is that Latin America is growing in economic and political influence on the world stage. In coordinating a global response to our current economic crisis, President-Elect Obama should include at least Brazil and Mexico at the table because of the significance of their economy. The region can also be an important partner in energy policy and the development of new energy technologies. Because he is so popular right now, through a little facetime, our President-Elect has the opportunity to set the agenda with countries whose leaders are less popular or are on the way out. He can really create the groundwork for a fruitful and cooperative relationship across the region with relatively little cost.
As our nation currently faces two wars and the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression, I understand that our new President may not be able to focus initially on Latin America policy and many other issues of the day. President-Elect Obama will have the weight of the American people and the world on his shoulders as he begins office in these difficult times. Because I know this is the case, I understand that President-Elect Obama's Latin America policy may remain thin in the beginning. It is my hope, however, that at some point during his term, he will begin to execute a strategy towards Latin America that takes into account its political and economic significance to the United States. If I was not personally inspired by President-Elect Obama and did not believe that he could do this, I would not offer the suggestion. Because I do believe strongly in the President-Elect's vision and worldview, I am certain that in his presidency, he will change our country's Latin America policy for the better.
The attention received by President-Elect Obama in the Latin American press has been astounding, as in other parts of the world. Leading newspapers across South and Central America hailed the new American president as an inspirational figure who strikes a chord due to his biracial background. On Wednesday morning, Obama's name and image was plastered across the front page of all of the region's major dailies. On a popular Argentine / Pan-Latin American news and analysis site, Nueva Mayoria.com, journalist Rosendo Fraga writes of Obama's significance in the Western Hemisphere. According to Fraga, Obama has "profound significance" first, because he will be the "first African-American president" in the Western world, second, because he has inspired millions of new and young voters, and third, because in this globalized election, 4/5 of the world's population would have voted for Obama. All of this goodwill, according to Fraga, will allow President Obama to embody and more effectively exercise "soft power," or the power of American ideals like pluralism, liberty and social progress. This contrasts sharply with Bush's ability to exercise only "hard power," or military and economic might.
This potential impact of this "soft power" is already palpable in the reaction of Latin America's people and press to Obama's election. Sergio Malbergier, editor of the Money section at Folha de Sao Paulo, one of Brazil's most respected newspapers, said the following of President-Elect Obama: "Obama is a global phenomenon. His victory reflects not only the choice of a majority of Americans, but of the vast majority of human beings. This gives him even more legitimacy as a leader. And leadership will be necessary to take the world out of this increasingly large and ugly recession."
The reaction of Latin American heads of state to Obama's victory shows they understand the global popularity of the President-Elect and the impact he could have in the region. They also understand they will have to challenge him to engage the region. Brazil's President Lula da Silva, perhaps the region's most powerful leader, congratulated Obama on his historic victory but also challenged him to end the Cuban Embargo and to create a stronger relationship with Latin America, South America and, in particular, Brazil. Meanwhile, Felipe Calderon of Mexico was the first head of state to congratulate Obama, inviting him to visit the country and calling for "a new era of progress in the relationships between the two countries, based on responsibility, frank dialogue, respect and mutual confidence."
The reaction of leaders who have had conflictive relationships with the United States to Obama's election is also telling of their recognition of his popularity in the region. Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, one of the region's most anti-U.S. leaders, called Obama's election "historic" and affirmed a willingness to establish "new relations" with the United States and build a "constructive bilateral agenda." Evo Morales of Bolivia, who has had difficulty with the Bush Administration and presides over one of Latin America's most volatile nations, called Obama's triumph "truly historic" and hoped for "improve relations" with the U.S. Even Fidel Castro praised Obama's triumph. Given that Castro is on his way out, Chavez's popularity is suffering due to economic downturn and political fatigue after 10 years in power, and Morales presides over a divided nation, it is no surprise that they would want to bandwagon with Obama. He's probably more popular than these autocrats are in their own countries and the region. I think our new President will have a significant opportunity to push hard for more open societies and human rights in these countries. It will be much more difficult for them to caricature Obama than it was Bush, though I'm sure Chavez will try.
Until now, President-Elect Obama has only provided a rough sketch as to what his Latin America policy will look like. At a future date, I will discuss my views the specifics of this policy. For now, it is likely that the issues of immigration and trade policy will dominate his regional agenda during his first year in office. Because of our economic crisis and two wars abroad, it is likely that much Latin America policy will be crafted away from the cameras. That being said, because of his popularity in the world and the region, I believe that the Obama Administration's policy would benefit greatly from some facetime by the President-Elect in the region. The truth is that Latin America is growing in economic and political influence on the world stage. In coordinating a global response to our current economic crisis, President-Elect Obama should include at least Brazil and Mexico at the table because of the significance of their economy. The region can also be an important partner in energy policy and the development of new energy technologies. Because he is so popular right now, through a little facetime, our President-Elect has the opportunity to set the agenda with countries whose leaders are less popular or are on the way out. He can really create the groundwork for a fruitful and cooperative relationship across the region with relatively little cost.
As our nation currently faces two wars and the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression, I understand that our new President may not be able to focus initially on Latin America policy and many other issues of the day. President-Elect Obama will have the weight of the American people and the world on his shoulders as he begins office in these difficult times. Because I know this is the case, I understand that President-Elect Obama's Latin America policy may remain thin in the beginning. It is my hope, however, that at some point during his term, he will begin to execute a strategy towards Latin America that takes into account its political and economic significance to the United States. If I was not personally inspired by President-Elect Obama and did not believe that he could do this, I would not offer the suggestion. Because I do believe strongly in the President-Elect's vision and worldview, I am certain that in his presidency, he will change our country's Latin America policy for the better.
Wednesday, November 5
Si Se Puede! Let's Change The World!: A Latino's Reflection on an Amazing Day and Ambitious Goals for the Future
Yesterday (November 4, 2008) was a remarkable day for the United States of America and the world! It was a truly historic and amazing day to be an American! For the first time in history, in a country with a past of slavery, racial discrimination, and ethnic tensions, an African-American and son of an immigrant was elected President. People cheered on the streets from New York to Los Angeles as Barack Obama was elected our 44th President in a landslide victory! After eight years of dimwitted, heavy-handed policies that made many Americans, including myself, feel ashamed of their government, we became a proud country once again last night. Swept in on a mantle of change and hope in the face of a dire economic downturn, Barack Obama inspired millions of Americans this year to get involved in politics. With his optimistic message, steady leadership and improbable story, he made so many Americans, young and old, believe again in the power of our country.
I watched the election together with my wife and a diverse crowd in a bar in Times Square. I have never seen anything like the reaction at the bar and on the streets when Obama's victory was announced. The tears, the hugs, the laughter, the positivity of it all was so incredible! My wife, who is Brazilian and recently became a U.S. resident, said that it reminded her of Brazilians reaction to winning the World Cup. On the streets, the mood was more like New Year's Eve than the end of an election. President-elect Obama's speech moved me and many others to tears, because, just as I had hoped, he renewed his call for Americans to be directly involved with his government just as they were with his campaign. Barack Obama has already been a catalyst for change in this country, and he can bring about so much more as President if he keeps this focus. My wife and I ended the night convinced that this country will change for the better, and empowered to participate in that change.
What makes me most proud about this day is the role that Latinos like myself played. According to the exit polls conducted by CNN, Latinos voted for Barack Obama by a 2-1 margin (66% - 31%) and Obama got more than 10% more of the Latino vote than John Kerry in 2004. Latinos were the key to Obama's victory in the battleground states of Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even in traditionally conservative Florida, where Latinos went for Obama 57%-42%. If he hadn't won the Latino vote, Obama would not have won any of these four states.
Latinos voted decisively for Barack Obama because of his leadership on the financial crisis, his positions on issues important to them like comprehensive immigration reform and health care, and his own immigrant background. Like most Americans, many Latinos have been inspired by President-elect Obama's call for change, his leadership, and his promise to bring a new politics not just to domestic politics but also to foreign policy. For Latinos, this last portion involves Afghanistan and Iraq and also includes the U.S. relationship with countries in Latin America. Because of the severity of our economic crisis, neither Latin America nor immigration were major topics of discussion during the last weeks of the presidential campaign. While this is understandable, both need to be a crucial focus for the Obama Administration.
This is the reason I have decided to write this blog. As an expert in Latin American affairs, international politics and international law, I feel compelled to add my voice to the discussion that needs to take place about the important relationship between the United States and the countries of Latin America. I also want to discuss the growing role of Latinos in this country, and how the issues that are important to them should be addressed. Tomorrow I will write about the reaction to President-elect Obama's victory around the world, specifically in Latin America. This reaction has been just as amazing as the reaction in the United States. The amount of goodwill being extended to President-elect Obama around the world trumps any that has been extended to an American president in recent memory, and represent a true opportunity for our country. In Latin America, Obama has an amazing opportunity to exercise leadership in the region, blunting the negative leadership of outspoken autocrats like Hugo Chavez. As Latin America grows in political and economic power, there is a wonderful opportunity to work together with the region on issues that matter to the hemisphere. Today, Latin America and the United States share a common interest in issues like energy policy, energy technology, the environment, economic cooperation, poverty, investment, labor rights, human rights, criminal violence, and even cultural development. Moreover, the traditional issues of democracy, drugs, migration and security are still as relevant as ever. How the Obama Administration approaches all of these issues, and how Latin American countries and leaders approach the Obama Administration on them, are crucial to our future, and should be discussed.
While I am a strong supporter of Barack Obama's and will likely defend his policies more often than not on this blog, I welcome and encourage comments and participation by those who feel differently. The point of this exercise is to identify, debate, and discuss the issues. By doing so, it is my honest hope that at least some internet-savvy members of the new Administration come across this blog, participate and even get some ideas. At the very least, I hope to generate some real discussion on a region that I believe is often wrongly neglected by our leaders. Latin America's proximity to the United States and contribution to the immigrant population of this country should make it the most important region of the world for our government. Add to this its immense natural resources and its growing economic and political influence on world events and the neglect from past administrations is difficult to comprehend. Meanwhile, Latin American leaders, while generally having a much better understanding of the U.S. than their counterparts do of Latin American countries, often misconstrue the U.S. as monolithic and its relationship with the region as solely negative.
By mere virtue of who he is and what he has accomplished, Barack Obama has the ability to shatter this argument and promote a real change in the relationship. I know that with his leadership, we can become a real partner with our Latin American neighbors in the economic, political, and environmental security of our hemisphere. I know it sounds crazy, but I really believe that under Obama, we have the opportunity to begin to reverse decades of a reputation as an aggressive and abusive neighbor to Latin America. We can create a new relationship, one based on the shared diversity of our countries' peoples and our common economic and political goals. Knowing what the issues are vis-a-vis each country and identifying strategies to solve them is half the battle. This is what I hope to do in this blog, and I hope you will join me in this effort. In President-elect Obama's words,
I watched the election together with my wife and a diverse crowd in a bar in Times Square. I have never seen anything like the reaction at the bar and on the streets when Obama's victory was announced. The tears, the hugs, the laughter, the positivity of it all was so incredible! My wife, who is Brazilian and recently became a U.S. resident, said that it reminded her of Brazilians reaction to winning the World Cup. On the streets, the mood was more like New Year's Eve than the end of an election. President-elect Obama's speech moved me and many others to tears, because, just as I had hoped, he renewed his call for Americans to be directly involved with his government just as they were with his campaign. Barack Obama has already been a catalyst for change in this country, and he can bring about so much more as President if he keeps this focus. My wife and I ended the night convinced that this country will change for the better, and empowered to participate in that change.
What makes me most proud about this day is the role that Latinos like myself played. According to the exit polls conducted by CNN, Latinos voted for Barack Obama by a 2-1 margin (66% - 31%) and Obama got more than 10% more of the Latino vote than John Kerry in 2004. Latinos were the key to Obama's victory in the battleground states of Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even in traditionally conservative Florida, where Latinos went for Obama 57%-42%. If he hadn't won the Latino vote, Obama would not have won any of these four states.
Latinos voted decisively for Barack Obama because of his leadership on the financial crisis, his positions on issues important to them like comprehensive immigration reform and health care, and his own immigrant background. Like most Americans, many Latinos have been inspired by President-elect Obama's call for change, his leadership, and his promise to bring a new politics not just to domestic politics but also to foreign policy. For Latinos, this last portion involves Afghanistan and Iraq and also includes the U.S. relationship with countries in Latin America. Because of the severity of our economic crisis, neither Latin America nor immigration were major topics of discussion during the last weeks of the presidential campaign. While this is understandable, both need to be a crucial focus for the Obama Administration.
This is the reason I have decided to write this blog. As an expert in Latin American affairs, international politics and international law, I feel compelled to add my voice to the discussion that needs to take place about the important relationship between the United States and the countries of Latin America. I also want to discuss the growing role of Latinos in this country, and how the issues that are important to them should be addressed. Tomorrow I will write about the reaction to President-elect Obama's victory around the world, specifically in Latin America. This reaction has been just as amazing as the reaction in the United States. The amount of goodwill being extended to President-elect Obama around the world trumps any that has been extended to an American president in recent memory, and represent a true opportunity for our country. In Latin America, Obama has an amazing opportunity to exercise leadership in the region, blunting the negative leadership of outspoken autocrats like Hugo Chavez. As Latin America grows in political and economic power, there is a wonderful opportunity to work together with the region on issues that matter to the hemisphere. Today, Latin America and the United States share a common interest in issues like energy policy, energy technology, the environment, economic cooperation, poverty, investment, labor rights, human rights, criminal violence, and even cultural development. Moreover, the traditional issues of democracy, drugs, migration and security are still as relevant as ever. How the Obama Administration approaches all of these issues, and how Latin American countries and leaders approach the Obama Administration on them, are crucial to our future, and should be discussed.
While I am a strong supporter of Barack Obama's and will likely defend his policies more often than not on this blog, I welcome and encourage comments and participation by those who feel differently. The point of this exercise is to identify, debate, and discuss the issues. By doing so, it is my honest hope that at least some internet-savvy members of the new Administration come across this blog, participate and even get some ideas. At the very least, I hope to generate some real discussion on a region that I believe is often wrongly neglected by our leaders. Latin America's proximity to the United States and contribution to the immigrant population of this country should make it the most important region of the world for our government. Add to this its immense natural resources and its growing economic and political influence on world events and the neglect from past administrations is difficult to comprehend. Meanwhile, Latin American leaders, while generally having a much better understanding of the U.S. than their counterparts do of Latin American countries, often misconstrue the U.S. as monolithic and its relationship with the region as solely negative.
By mere virtue of who he is and what he has accomplished, Barack Obama has the ability to shatter this argument and promote a real change in the relationship. I know that with his leadership, we can become a real partner with our Latin American neighbors in the economic, political, and environmental security of our hemisphere. I know it sounds crazy, but I really believe that under Obama, we have the opportunity to begin to reverse decades of a reputation as an aggressive and abusive neighbor to Latin America. We can create a new relationship, one based on the shared diversity of our countries' peoples and our common economic and political goals. Knowing what the issues are vis-a-vis each country and identifying strategies to solve them is half the battle. This is what I hope to do in this blog, and I hope you will join me in this effort. In President-elect Obama's words,
"This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time – to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth – that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes We Can."
Let's show our President that we can!
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